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07/06/2010 - Joliet, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Saturday, July 10. Race: LifeLock.com 400. Site: Chicagoland Speedway. Track: 1.5-mile oval. Start time: 7:30 p.m. (et). Laps: 267. Miles: 400.5. 2009 winner: Mark Martin. Television: TNT. Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN)/SIRIUS NASCAR Radio.
After a spectacular fireworks show on and off the track and tempers flaring in the garage last Saturday night at Daytona International Speedway, it's time for the Sprint Cup Series to kick off the second half of its 36-race season this weekend at Chicagoland Speedway.
Kevin Harvick widened his points lead after an impressive win in the 400-mile race at Daytona. Harvick survived a rash of accidents, including the "big one" that involved 19 drivers, and then held off Kasey Kahne and Jeff Gordon in a two-lap overtime finish for his second Cup victory this season.
Chicagoland has been one of Harvick's better tracks, where he has scored six top-10 finishes, including two victories, in nine starts. He won the first two races on this one-and-a-half-mile track from 2001-02.
"We got to do some of the very first testing at Chicago, and we've always run well there," Harvick said. "Our packages have evolved over time from a setup standpoint year to year, so we always run well there and look forward to going back. I think the mile and a half tracks have been a strong point of ours this year."
He's right. Harvick has finished no worse than 11th in the four races held on mile and a half tracks so far this season -- Las Vegas, Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte.
Harvick and Tony Stewart are the only drivers with multiple victories at Chicagoland, with Stewart winning there in 2004 and '07.
Heading into Chicagoland, Harvick holds a 212-point advantage over new second- place man Jeff Gordon, who finished third at Daytona.
Gordon currently has a 47-race winless drought, which matches his career-long stretch. He also went the same number of races without a win before his last victory came in April 2009 at Texas.
"I'm excited that we're second in points, but I'll be honest, all I look at is where we are with wins right now," Gordon said. "When you're positioned well in the Chase, like we are currently, then it comes down to wins and being seeded for when that Chase comes around.
"I think these top fives that we've had here recently build momentum to get us an opportunity to get us those wins. So that's really more what's on our mind right now. It's about what we've got to do to win a championship. I feel like we've got to get a few wins before that Chase starts."
Gordon, who won at Chicagoland in 2006, is expected to make his 600th career and consecutive start at Chicagoland. The four-time series champion made his first start in the 1992 season-finale at Atlanta, and has not missed a race since then.
While Gordon climbed to second, his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr. moved up two spots to 11th in the standings. Earnhardt Jr. steadily has worked his way back into the top-12 with finishes of 11th or better in the last four races, including a fourth-place run at Daytona. He is 57 points ahead of 12th-place Carl Edwards with eight races remaining before the championship Chase begins in September at New Hampshire.
"We're getting a little bit more lucky than I would like," Earnhardt Jr. said. "You don't want to make the Chase on just pure luck, because you ran well. We've been running good."
Hendrick driver Mark Martin is now outside the top-12. Martin has finished 14th or worse in the last five races, and dropped from 10th to 13th in the rankings since then. He trails Edwards by 39 points.
Martin won last year's race at Chicagoland. He led a track-record 195 laps, but had to hold off Gordon after the final restart with just two laps to go for his fourth win of the 2009 season.
One year ago, Martin trailed then 12th-place Kasey Kahne by 65 points. Martin made it into the Chase, and by virtue of his series-leading five wins, was awarded the top-seed. He finished the season second to champion Jimmie Johnson in points.
Johnson, currently third in points (-225), is tied with Denny Hamlin for most wins so far this year with five each.
This season, Johnson has checked off Bristol (March) and Sonoma, CA (June) from his list of tracks where he had yet to win. Could Chicagoland be the next one taken off the list. He sure would love to do it, particularly for crew chief Chad Knaus, who hails from nearby Rockford, IL.
"Chad has asked me since I won in California for my first race if we could win his home state so he could experience that," said Johnson, a native of El Cajon, CA. "We have been very close. I gave one up to Kyle [Busch] on a late restart a couple of years ago. Last year, we led a ton of laps, but it just didn't close at the end. Things get away from us. I feel like we've got a good chance there, and certainly hope to. It's nice to cross off these tracks that I haven't won at."
Forty-seven teams are on the preliminary entry list for the LifeLock.com 400.
<< This Week in Auto Racing July 9 - 11
Joliet, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's a busy weekend of racing, as the NASCAR
Sprint Cup and Nationwide Series run under the lights at Chicagoland Speedway.
The Camping World Truck Series returns to action at Iowa Speedway, and Formula
One rev
<< Blazers sign Babbitt
Portland, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Portland Trail Blazers have signed forward
Luke Babbitt, the 16th overall pick in this year's NBA Draft.
Babbitt was selected by Minnesota, but was then traded on draft night, along
with forward Ryan Gom
<< Brewers P Gallardo put on DL, will miss All-Star Game
Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Yovani
Gallardo was put on the 15-day disabled list Tuesday due to a strained left
rib cage muscle.
Gallardo suffered the injury during the third inning of Sunday's
<< Nashville officially brings in Kostitsyn
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Nashville Predators officially locked
up restricted free-agent forward Sergei Kostitsyn on Tuesday.
The deal is worth $550,000 for the upcoming season.
Nashville acquired the embattled Kostitsyn
Truck begin nine-week stretch at Iowa >>
Newton, IA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Camping World Truck. Date:
Sunday, July 11. Race: Lucas Oil 200. Site: Iowa Speedway. Track: .875-mile
oval. Start time: 2:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 200. Miles: 175. 2009 winner: Mike
Skinner. Television:
Youkilis leaves game >>
St. Petersburg, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Boston Red Sox first baseman Kevin
Youkilis left Tuesday's game with an undisclosed foot or leg injury.
Youkilis was removed from play prior to his at-bat in the fourth inning after
he apparently hurt th
Cano among initial six chosen for HR Derby >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano
was among six players chosen initially for this year's All-Star Home Run
Derby, to be held next Monday in Anaheim.
Other players to commit from the Ameri
Rangers-Indians game delayed after fan falls from upper deck >>
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tuesday's Indians-Rangers game was stopped
for about 15 minutes during the bottom of the fifth inning after a fan fell
from the upper deck while reaching for a foul ball.
The fan fell down to the grandstand l
Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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